At the End of the Day ...

Last prediction of the day:

FF 79

FG 49

Labour 20

Greens 6

SF 4

PD 2

Others 5.

Prominent casualties:

Michael McDowell

Liz O'Donnell

Tom Parlon

Tim O'Malley

Fiona O'Malley

Joe Higgins

Liam Twomey

Jerry Cowley

Dan Boyle (almost certainly)

Denis O'Donovan

Breda Moynihan-Cronin

Donie Cassidy.

There is not much risk to the FF total, FG could get a couple more.

There will be FF/PD minority, or FF/Green, government. The Labour looks too difficult for FF by comparison, though it would offer advantages.

The next General Election is likely to be sooner than the maximum 5-years.

Why was my morning figure wrong ?

1. FF, FG and Labour each got a bigger seat "bonus" (i.e. greater % of seats than of votes) than I expected.

2. SF performed badly and got less seats even than their lower % of votes would have indicated.

3. PDs and "Others" worse even than I expected

4. I was more optimistic for smaller parties' share than the eventual outcome, and vice-versa for FG and Lab.

A noteworthy feature is that the ego trips of Willie O'Dea and Bertie Ahern cost FF another two-seat bonus.

Otherwise, Fine Gael's remarkable revival has to acknowledged as a remarkable, stunning achievement.

If only they had something to offer !