Pay-Back Time for Willie O'Dea ?

When the first-count results, and the extent of Willie's ego-trip, for Limerick East began to become clear at about 4 in the afternoon on May 25, an interesting episode was observable on RTE television. Our hero was at de the count centre, while in the studio were FF Director of Elections P.J. Mara and Foreign Minister Dermot Ahern.

As is conventional on these occasions, even the neutrals on the panel made their congratulations to Willie, who was ecstatic, albeit in a restrained way.

What was remarkable was the coldness of the formal congratulations from his party colleagues, who must have known that the real story was the throwing away of a seat (as described here).

So, less than three months later, Willie, in desperate need of help with the Aer Lingus Shannon-Heathrow crisis, is being "hung out to dry" in a way seldom witnessed in Irish politics. Has it ever happened so obviously to a cabinet minister ?

P.S.Let it not be forgotten that this crisis at Shannon is yet another Martin Cullen-as-puppet-for-Bertie-Ahern production.

Winning and Losing

At one time, a certain English rugby team (Gloucester, if my memory serves me well) had a very supportive local newspaper. Everything the team did was portrayed in the most positive way possible. Even when they lost heavily, some silver-lining to the cloud would be found. The best example of this occurred after Gloucester lost by 71 points to 5 one sorry weekend. Nothing daunted, the newspaper headline read "Gloucester in 76-point Thriller !"

The motivation is, I believe, different, but I am always reminded of that rugby team when people say that Dick Spring's Labour Party "won" the 1992 election, and again when they say that Enda Kenny's Fine Gael "won" the 2007 one.

Certainly, both were fine performances, but, to switch to a soccer analogy, it is the team with the highest score, not the team that put together the best moves, or which showed the most improvement, which is deemed to have won the match.

Bertie Ahern and Fianna Fail have won the 2007 election.

Clarification re Willie and De Bert

My "cut" last night at De Bert was a mite unfair. Three seats for FF in his constituency was very tall order indeed.

However, just possibly, an even distribution of the FF first preferences might have brought it off if the other votes had been distributed differently e.g if, say, Gregory had polled a bit better, Costello a little worse.

Meanwhile, in Willie O'Dea's Limerick East, a 5-seater,FF and PD had 55%, FG/Lab 36%. (Greens had 3%).Guess which combination got 3 seats ? FG/Lab.

With a more even spread of FF votes, the result would almost certainly have been different. Even without the PD, they had 48.7%,very nearly 3 quotas.

Whatever about De Bert, Willie let his side down. I suspect that others may also have similar questions to answer, not just in FF.

Final result

The final outcome is

FF 78

FG 51

Labour 20

Greens 6

SF 4

PD 2

Others 5.

Note that the above correctly sums to 166, unlike the previous tables which totalled 165 and 167.

Bertie Ahern is keeping his cards close to his chest in relation to how he plans to form his next government, but has been stressing stability. This requires him to carefully assess whether he could rely on the Greens as partners, or whether the extra concessions, and very hard work, needed to successfully get Labour to do a deal,would be worth it. I am inclined to think that he may end up simply keeping the PDs, sweet-talking some independents, and trusting in his ability to keep the others from finding a common cause sufficient to bring him down.

Stability may not be as assured as before the election, but no-one may notice the difference.

At the End of the Day ...

Last prediction of the day:

FF 79

FG 49

Labour 20

Greens 6

SF 4

PD 2

Others 5.

Prominent casualties:

Michael McDowell

Liz O'Donnell

Tom Parlon

Tim O'Malley

Fiona O'Malley

Joe Higgins

Liam Twomey

Jerry Cowley

Dan Boyle (almost certainly)

Denis O'Donovan

Breda Moynihan-Cronin

Donie Cassidy.

There is not much risk to the FF total, FG could get a couple more.

There will be FF/PD minority, or FF/Green, government. The Labour looks too difficult for FF by comparison, though it would offer advantages.

The next General Election is likely to be sooner than the maximum 5-years.

Why was my morning figure wrong ?

1. FF, FG and Labour each got a bigger seat "bonus" (i.e. greater % of seats than of votes) than I expected.

2. SF performed badly and got less seats even than their lower % of votes would have indicated.

3. PDs and "Others" worse even than I expected

4. I was more optimistic for smaller parties' share than the eventual outcome, and vice-versa for FG and Lab.

A noteworthy feature is that the ego trips of Willie O'Dea and Bertie Ahern cost FF another two-seat bonus.

Otherwise, Fine Gael's remarkable revival has to acknowledged as a remarkable, stunning achievement.

If only they had something to offer !

Irish General Election: my prediction

My prediction after exit poll but before any tallies:

FF 72

FG 39

Lab 18

SF 17

Green 10

PD 4

Others 7.

In other words: as forecast , FF/Lab is only practical government combination

Some Reasons NOT to Vote Progressive Democrat

(Probably) last in the series:

1. Tom Parlon

2. The citizenship Referendum

3. The Treatment of Frank Connolly

4. Mae Sexton

5. Tim O'Malley

6. Tom Morrissey

7. Michael McDowell

8. Noel Grealish

9. Harney giving Noel Treacy job overseeing his financiers

10. Ridiculous stamp duty campaign

11. Harney's strange view of what a contract is

12. Harney's muzzling clause

13. McDowell's unhealthy relationship with Sam Smyth

Some Reasons NOT to Vote Fianna Fail

Again in no particular order:

1. Bankless Bertie

2. The electronic voting debacle

3. Repeated refusals to accept responsibility

4. Airport policy 5. Martin Cullen

6. Use of Shannon by U.S.

7. Noel Ahern

8. John McGuinness

9. GV Wright ( Yes, I know he's not standing this time)

10. Support for McDowell re. Frank Connolly

11. Paisley's support

12. Blair's support

13. Billions wasted

14. Noel Treacy - lied to the public or to the Mahon Tribunal, took job as regulator of industry who financed his campaign

15. The Galway tent

16. Ridiculous cave-in on stamp duty

17. The Brian Cowen/Tony O'Reilly conspiracy

Some Reasons NOT To Vote Fine Gael

(First of a short series. The reason that FG feature first, and that there is a certain Meath tone, is that this was originally written as a reaction to Sarah Carey's uncharacteristically weak advocacy of her beloved party.)

In no particular order:

1. Enda Kenny

2. Liam Twomey

3. Graham Geraghty

4. Brian Hayes

5. Damien English

6. That ridiculous "contract"

7. Those disgraceful posters on bail

8. Kenny's refusal to stop U.S. use of Shannon for Iraq

(see "Village" current issue)

9. FG support of McDowell re Frank Connolly

10. Mairead McGuinness

11. Olivia Mitchell

12. No visible front bench

13. Ridiculous stance on stamp duty

A Lawyer on Election Issues

Eoin O'Dell has a useful post on the attention given in the party manifestos to some legal matters of interest.

Regulating the Regulators

Michael McDowell, Leader of the Progressive Democrat party, and (for the moment still) Tanaiste and Minister for Justice and Law Reform, has made a little-noticed but valuable contribution to what might be a hot election issue in more serious times.

In the last decade, government has surrendered control of the regulation of various markets e.g. telephony, taxis, electricity, to government-appointed but "independent" regulators over whom the politicians have no power or influence.

Left-wingers generally do not like this, but even the Right has been confounded by the failure of some regulators to bring about some desirable things, such as wider availability of broadband.

Now - or, rather yesterday - The Irish Times reports that McDowell has identified this as an issue for the election, and has included it in his party's manifesto.

Regardless of the merits of the PD proposals, I think that they should be welcomed and that the other parties might usefully respond with their own approaches to the problem he has identified.

The End of the Bert

As I write this, the radio stations (but not yet their websites) are prophesying that the PDs (junior party in the outgoing FF/PD coalition) will leave the government tonight i.e.in mid-campaign.

This is unprecedented in Irish politics, although the same party did force the dismissal, in disgrace, from Cabinet of the FF candidate during the 1990 Presidential election which resulted in the election of Mary Robinson.

The current development dramatically worsens a pretty disastrous first week of the campaign for Taoiseach (=Prime Minister) Bertie Ahern, who has failed to deal credibly with questions about his financial dealings more than a decade ago.

These questions have been prompted by leaks from material provided by Ahern to the Mahon Planning Tribunal and circulated, subject to a confidentiality stipulation, by that body to a number of interested parties. Vincent Browne sets out the main questions here.

I pause here to observe that the leaking is totally reprehensible. However, I accept that The Irish Times, to which all leaks have been made, was not only entitled but pretty well obliged to share the information with the public.

The PD leader and (for the moment) Tanaiste (=Deputy P.M.), Michael McDowell, appears to believe that previous information given to him was misleading and/or incomplete, which leaves him no option but to depart from the Government.

The upshot of all this seems likely to be that the FF/PD alliance is definitely dead. (While it was widely so regarded anyway, only this morning, the Taoiseach was declaring it his first preference for the next government). It may be that the alternative alliance of FG/Labour will benefit from a boost to its prospects and a blow to the morale and prospects of FF, resulting in Enda Kenny (FG) becoming Taoiseach next month, perhaps with Green support.

To that latter prospect, I say "not necessarily". The numbers still make an FF/Labour coalition very likely, and a more stable option, not only in my opinion but in that of the majority of voters (according to a recent poll).

This will not console Bertie Ahern, though, because my prediction is that Labour will learn from its 1992 mistake and will insist on a new Taoiseach, knowing that Brian Cowen (now Finance Minister) would command widespread respect.

Cullen Slams Brennan

I have just heard Martin Cullen, the present Minister for Transport, say on George Hook's programme that before he became the Minister, there was "no vision and no plan".(Unfortunately, the radio station does not provide a facility to listen to the programme after the event).

His predecessor, party colleague Seamus Brennan, is unlikely to agree.

Increase Stamp Duty, I say

Stamp duty is in the news again, and again is being discussed in what I regard as irrational terms. It is being described as a tax on buyers and as increasing the price of houses.

The truth is that it is a tax on sellers and it depresses the price of houses. The price of houses is set by the interplay of supply and demand, which in practical terms for the most part means the capacity of buyers to pay. Several factors affect this, including the availability and terms (period, interest rate, LTV ratio) of finance, and personal income, with the latter the major one, arguably.

Imagine Mr A is selling his Dublin house. He wants to get as much as he possibly can. The two remaining competing buyers, let us call them Ms B and Mr C, have both been advised that € 1.1 million including stamp duty is probably going to be needed to get the property. Ms B has decided that she wants the house enough to pay this, and that she can afford it. Mr C cannot afford to go over € 1m including stamp duty. Encouraged by everyone, he believes that he could afford the house if only there were no stamp duty.

Mr C therefore persuades his friend, the Minister for Finance, to abolish stamp duty. Nothing else has changed. Mr A still wants to get as much as he can, and Ms B can still afford to pay € 1.1m.

Now, post-abolition, is Mr A, knowing or suspecting that Ms B has € 1.1m, going to sell it to Mr C instead for € 1m ? Why is Ms B not going to pay € 1.1m if she has to ?

Who will doubt that Mr A will get € 1.1 m for the house if stamp duty is gone, ceteris paribus* ?

Thus, it follows that stamp duty is holding prices down, and is a tax on Mr A, who is the seller.

The same result ensues if you start in a scenario of no stamp duty followed by its imposition. Ms B will end up paying €1.1m for the house in the first, and Mr A will receive €1.1m. If tax is imposed at a rate of 10%, Ms B can still only pay €1.1m for the house, and Mr A is forced to give €100k to the tax-man.

With the above in mind, is it any surprise that the PDs, whose main political appeal is to property-owners, are keen on reducing stamp duty ?

*This is a tell-tale phrase, meaning "with everything else staying the same", which indicates to the cognoscenti that I have studied the subject.