The End of the Bert

As I write this, the radio stations (but not yet their websites) are prophesying that the PDs (junior party in the outgoing FF/PD coalition) will leave the government tonight i.e.in mid-campaign.

This is unprecedented in Irish politics, although the same party did force the dismissal, in disgrace, from Cabinet of the FF candidate during the 1990 Presidential election which resulted in the election of Mary Robinson.

The current development dramatically worsens a pretty disastrous first week of the campaign for Taoiseach (=Prime Minister) Bertie Ahern, who has failed to deal credibly with questions about his financial dealings more than a decade ago.

These questions have been prompted by leaks from material provided by Ahern to the Mahon Planning Tribunal and circulated, subject to a confidentiality stipulation, by that body to a number of interested parties. Vincent Browne sets out the main questions here.

I pause here to observe that the leaking is totally reprehensible. However, I accept that The Irish Times, to which all leaks have been made, was not only entitled but pretty well obliged to share the information with the public.

The PD leader and (for the moment) Tanaiste (=Deputy P.M.), Michael McDowell, appears to believe that previous information given to him was misleading and/or incomplete, which leaves him no option but to depart from the Government.

The upshot of all this seems likely to be that the FF/PD alliance is definitely dead. (While it was widely so regarded anyway, only this morning, the Taoiseach was declaring it his first preference for the next government). It may be that the alternative alliance of FG/Labour will benefit from a boost to its prospects and a blow to the morale and prospects of FF, resulting in Enda Kenny (FG) becoming Taoiseach next month, perhaps with Green support.

To that latter prospect, I say "not necessarily". The numbers still make an FF/Labour coalition very likely, and a more stable option, not only in my opinion but in that of the majority of voters (according to a recent poll).

This will not console Bertie Ahern, though, because my prediction is that Labour will learn from its 1992 mistake and will insist on a new Taoiseach, knowing that Brian Cowen (now Finance Minister) would command widespread respect.